In the end, 2013 looked like this (I have scaled the numbers to a beginning net asset value of US$100,000):
Security | Value | Gain | Return | Days held |
Precia | 6,819 | 1,609 | 23.6% | 202 |
XPO Logistics | 15,063 | (183) | -1.2% | 38 |
Northgate Plc | 9,013 | 540 | 6.0% | 120 |
Hawaiian Holdings (equity) | 24,530 | 11,104 | 45.3% | 364 |
GEA | 12,020 | 1,063 | 8.8% | 13 |
Northgate | 14,636 | 11,992 | 81.9% | 337 |
Cybergun | 3,290 | (1,086) | -33.0% | 343 |
Lamprell | 13,695 | 2,767 | 20.2% | 213 |
Conrad | 6,195 | 2,604 | 42.0% | 177 |
Cybergun 8% bonds | 14,007 | 18,075 | 129.0% | 45 |
Hawaiian Holdings (equity) | 10,018 | 1,374 | 13.7% | 114 |
Consciencefood | 7,521 | 69 | 0.9% | 132 |
Epicentre Holding | 9,001 | (222) | -2.5% | 201 |
Emeco | 5,065 | 675 | 13.3% | 104 |
Emeco | 4,174 | 2,969 | 71.1% | 62 |
Emeco | 14,777 | 1,613 | 10.9% | 124 |
Unitek Global Services | 2,897 | 602 | 20.8% | 13 |
Axia Net Media | 11,052 | 1,103 | 10.0% | 6 |
Hawaiian Holdings (calls)* | 6,561 | 8,103 | 123.5% | 134 |
Alaska Comm Sys | 8,515 | (1,282) | -15.1% | 104 |
Republic Airways Holdings | 5,143 | 303 | 5.9% | 22 |
The Dolan Company | 5,773 | 110 | 1.9% | 72 |
Mayur Uniquoters | 13,483 | 9,986 | 74.1% | 104 |
Zytronic Plc | 7,117 | 1,416 | 19.9% | 21 |
Lombard Risk Management | 9,040 | 616 | 6.8% | 65 |
Republic Airways Holdings | 11,697 | 303 | 2.6% | 54 |
"Reserved" | 15,038 | 1,666 | 11.1% | 22 |
Lamprell | 11,112 | 681 | 6.1% | 4 |
78,573 | ||||
Tax Liability | (15,189) | |||
After-tax Gain | 63,384 | 63.4% | ||
Average Cash | 22,589 | 16.3% | ||
S&P 500 | 31.9% | |||
Performance relative to S&P 500 | + | 31.5% |
and was experienced in this way:
Much of the year was spent trying to undo mistakes made in the back half of 2012. My posture on January 1, 2013 was not up to the task of keeping up with a bull market and, absent some fixes, would have resulted in a disappointing performance (again, the values are scaled to a start of year net asset value of $100,000):
Cost ($USD) | Gain ($USD) | Return | |
GEA | 11,376 | 1,415 | 12.4% |
XPO Logistics | 17,349 | 9,046 | 52.1% |
Northgate Plc | 17,058 | 11,943 | 70.0% |
Hawaiian | 26,912 | 12,534 | 46.6% |
Cybergun | 2,949 | (1,182) | -40.1% |
Precia | 6,383 | 1,808 | 28.3% |
35,564 | |||
Tax Liability | (5,335) | ||
After-Tax Gain | 30,230 | 30.2% | |
Average Cash | 17,973 | ||
S&P 500 | 31.9% | ||
Relative Performance | -1.7% |
In any case, I've shifted things around enough that I am reasonably satisfied with how I am currently positioned:
The best laid schemes of mice and men / often go awry. Still, I suspect that there's enough wiggle room in there to see me through to a doubling of NAV within two years. Being explicit about the risks, catalysts and price targets of the portfolio-as-a-whole is a useful exercise that I should have engaged in this time last year but didn't.
And I'm still holding too many names but I hope to reduce the number down to four or five within a few months.
Happy New Year.
EDIT (January 3): It has been suggested to me that the "tracking portfolio" page is not particularly illuminating, not least since it doesn't correspond to calendar years. I agree & I've adjusted it accordingly. Also, I've taken the opportunity to reduce the number of holdings by selling out of Republic and Alaska Comm Systems.
EDIT (January 3): It has been suggested to me that the "tracking portfolio" page is not particularly illuminating, not least since it doesn't correspond to calendar years. I agree & I've adjusted it accordingly. Also, I've taken the opportunity to reduce the number of holdings by selling out of Republic and Alaska Comm Systems.
Nice job Red. That's it, nice job. :)
ReplyDeleteFantastic job Red.
ReplyDeletehi red, nice blog
ReplyDeletei am wondering, why you like more HA than RJET??
it seems to me that RJET is way more cheaper than other airlines
how do you justify such a large position in HA? any catalyst?. 6 motnhs ago it was very cheap on EV/EBITDAR or PER etc...
but now it seems to be trading with modest discount wit its peers
thanks very much ;)
Hi, and thanks.
ReplyDeleteHA is really three businesses:
1) the interisland business is a monopoly that generates ~200m in EBIT
2) the Hawaii to mainland US business has had a negative EBIT of ~$110m;and
3) the Intl business now generates ~$100m in EBIT.
Capacity reductions in Segment #2 will mean that the losses there reduce; growth in the intl business will mean that EBIT there will rise.
So, I see consolidated EBIT of$250 to $300 not too far away.
More importantly, there are natural buyers for the interisland business and a cheap price paid for that business (and everything else being scrapped for parts) would mean that HA is (still) trading below its "margin of safety".
Third, 2015/6 is cash flow time; it has basically paid for its aircraft needs for the next 20 years so that operating cash flow will more or less equal free cash flow. When that happens, something's going to have to give.
The discount between HA and the others is still wide when you measure it using relative TEV/EBITDAR multiples. HA is basically still at a 50% discount to the others even though it is better than them in every way (lower cost, better moat, etc).
There are some niggles in the relationship between RJET's GAAP depreciation and its debt amortization schedules that introduces some uncertainty. RJET is also a contractor and so is not the master of its destiny. That weighs on my mind too.
That's more or less why.
Excellent thinking
ReplyDeletedo you think that HA could have some benefit if price of oil drops??
or due to the hedges, they can't benefit form that event.
A very little reduction in their 700M$ annual expense in fuel could have a big impact on earnings...
thank you RED ;)
Ah, yes, thx for reminding me: HA is also that large a position because it balances the cyclical and countercyclical forces at play in my portfolio.
ReplyDeleteTo see this, you can cheat and look at what happened to HA's share price and earnings when oil prices fell in 2009.
The proper reasoning, though, is that when jet fuel prices fall, interisland fares fall much less.
This assumes, though, that downcycles are accompanied by lower jet fuel prices -- usually so but not necessarily so.
Red,
ReplyDeleteGreat work Red!
Question on Emeco.. what is the Secondary issuance at <=$0.32? I dont think that I saw that in your previous analysis.
Thanks!
I think that was actually supposed to be >=$0.32
ReplyDeleteHi, Those are notes to myself about what I think would be a worst case scenario in a reasonable world. I don't doubt that the company could issue shares at about that price.
ReplyDelete