tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post3451218560791271782..comments2023-10-17T06:55:06.255-04:00Comments on the red corner: CVR Partners - Nitrogen Fertilizersred.http://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comBlogger138125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-89407613858414518872020-07-09T08:24:05.517-04:002020-07-09T08:24:05.517-04:00Hello everyone, Are you into trading or just wish ...Hello everyone, Are you into trading or just wish to give it a try, please becareful on the platform you choose to invest on and the manager you choose to manage your account because that’s where failure starts from be wise. After reading so much comment i had to give trading tips a try, I have to come to the conclusion that binary options pays massively but the masses has refused to show us the right way to earn That’s why I have to give trading tips the accolades because they have been so helpful to traders . For a free masterclass strategy kindly contact (paytondyian699@gmail.com) for a free masterclass strategy. He'll give you a free tutors on how you can earn and recover your losses in trading for free..Riajengenelenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07359634633534660266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-55352763659058035752020-05-10T08:55:03.485-04:002020-05-10T08:55:03.485-04:00clearly he went bankruptclearly he went bankruptAAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17882380266925514301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-87736096500214001882020-05-10T08:55:02.037-04:002020-05-10T08:55:02.037-04:00clearly he went bankruptclearly he went bankruptAAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17882380266925514301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-53764925708194769982020-03-10T06:56:17.117-04:002020-03-10T06:56:17.117-04:00Well said. Hope red comes back soon.
Which simila...Well said. Hope red comes back soon. <br />Which similar blogs do you recommend for us to learn?<br />What went wrong with UAN/LXU analysis and what do you think going forward? Thanks.yinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13841165158731972156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-22917085543663733772020-03-10T06:49:29.269-04:002020-03-10T06:49:29.269-04:00Can you elaborate a bit on #4? Can you elaborate a bit on #4? yinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13841165158731972156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-61632853086720998172020-03-10T06:46:36.390-04:002020-03-10T06:46:36.390-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.yinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13841165158731972156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-65113526083603480802020-02-15T01:37:26.369-05:002020-02-15T01:37:26.369-05:00It doesn’t seem that the blog is maintained anymor...It doesn’t seem that the blog is maintained anymore. <br /><br />Looking at the Inventory page, it seems to me that on balance the higher quality companies (JDG, JHD Precia etc.) have performed outstandingly (a credit to the analysis undertaken on the blog) whereas the ideas/situations haven’t so much, partly thru lack of luck (a problem when running a concentrated portfolio), partly due to a lack of understanding of complex dynamics (Macau/HK), partly due to value stocks in general being out of favour. Overanalysing certain situations also hasn’t really helped. None of which is surprising. <br /><br />As a whole, this is a great blog to ponder over as an 8 year case study. <br /><br />My takeaways are: <br /><br />1) Quality companies outperform in the long run: good management with skin in the game, high ROIC/growth prospects with long runaway, history of consistent performance.<br /><br />2) Discipline matters immensely. Cutting losers (Future Bright) would have impacted IRR hugely. <br /><br />3) Being concentrated is fun but extremely difficult to sustain unless you have 2) above sussed to perfection. <br /><br />4) Avoid sub-scale businesses when running a concentrated portfolio. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-25643992268844948082020-02-01T05:39:41.665-05:002020-02-01T05:39:41.665-05:00https://www.profercy.com/profercy-world-nitrogen-i...https://www.profercy.com/profercy-world-nitrogen-index/<br /><br />"While UAN markets have been stable in Europe, US values are now at a level that will test the production costs of FSU suppliers. Indeed, CF Industries latest Q1 and Q2 offers at several river terminal locations reflect comfortably below $120ps ton fob Nola equivalent."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-78330169636331336542019-12-08T17:24:06.405-05:002019-12-08T17:24:06.405-05:00Hi red,
Another question I had regards climate c...Hi red, <br /><br />Another question I had regards climate change. Nitrogen fertilizers contribute quite a bit to global warming (see, e.g. Yara 2019 Q3 presentation, p21, which refers to the IPCC special report about land use). I'd be keen to have your view on this.<br /><br />Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-56484799246735260702019-11-20T07:16:02.652-05:002019-11-20T07:16:02.652-05:00+1+1yinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13841165158731972156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-65287669878519500062019-11-18T18:14:13.743-05:002019-11-18T18:14:13.743-05:00Any idea anyone why we see the prices fall again? ...Any idea anyone why we see the prices fall again? From CF Industries Oct 30 presentation one would assume that the long-term thesis still stands, no?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-35528619074685893272019-10-26T06:15:59.667-04:002019-10-26T06:15:59.667-04:00HI red,
Just in case you're not aware: http:/...HI red,<br /><br />Just in case you're not aware: http://www.rentechsecuritieslitigation.com/<br /><br />Best,<br />LiorAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-73999315238434470612019-10-24T06:42:40.976-04:002019-10-24T06:42:40.976-04:00Hi red, hope you're well! Your view on the lat...Hi red, hope you're well! Your view on the latest results/earnings call would be greatly appreciated. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-86284666473098442992019-10-23T18:28:51.044-04:002019-10-23T18:28:51.044-04:00http://investors.cvrpartners.com/node/9541/pdfhttp://investors.cvrpartners.com/node/9541/pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-8528330413676874532019-08-28T04:07:05.960-04:002019-08-28T04:07:05.960-04:00That would be great. That would be great. David Rodriguezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08783326120517776862noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-20515521105798906502019-08-27T17:41:10.762-04:002019-08-27T17:41:10.762-04:00Seems like quite a few donuts over the past couple...Seems like quite a few donuts over the past couple of years, curious to see an analysis of what went wrong. Especially since this blog started off strong and uncovered a lot of hidden gems in the first few years.<br /><br />After all, what good is making mistakes, if we don't learn from them?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-20947953917486713802019-08-08T16:59:36.260-04:002019-08-08T16:59:36.260-04:00https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/art...https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/08/domestic-wholesale-fertilizer-pricered.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-26619900693302204752019-07-30T12:39:20.935-04:002019-07-30T12:39:20.935-04:00I agree & left a comment saying so in the LXU ...I agree & left a comment saying so in the LXU thread. Caveats are that (1) Q3 2019 won't be pretty (2) LXU is an EBITDA/FCF/etc multiples story so somewhat subject to sentiment over the next the couple of years. But if they keep operating rates steady 200MM ebitda in FY20 would not surprise me.red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-7856356414521604822019-07-30T12:30:15.662-04:002019-07-30T12:30:15.662-04:00Looking like a really nice set up for LSB going in...Looking like a really nice set up for LSB going into 2020<br />- supportive corn prices<br />- demand into fall/spring will enable them to ship most if not all inventory<br />- no scheduled turnarounds in 2020 should boost production 5-8% if onstream remains steady<br />- Targeting onstream rates of 95%, 95% and 97% at Pryor, Cherokee and El Dorado respectively<br /><br />Commentary from the conference call.<br /><br />"Looking ahead to the second half of the year...corn prices have moved into the mid- $4 per bushel range. At those prices, industry resources anticipate that farmers will plant a significant amount of additional acres for the 2019-2020 planting season, which could mean a very heavy fall application season for ammonia, providing we don't see an early frost"<br /><br />"Even with the planned turnarounds at our El Dorado and Pryor facilities...along with whatever lingering impacts remain from the past 8 months of weather-related product inventory buildup...I anticipate that we will deliver improved profitability year-over-year during the second half of 2019 and into 2020"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-82714261934423684732019-07-30T10:57:34.348-04:002019-07-30T10:57:34.348-04:00LSB Q2 results. Slide 9 shows Q3 current/forecast ...LSB Q2 results. Slide 9 shows Q3 current/forecast selling prices.<br /><br />http://investors.lsbindustries.com/static-files/10195551-799a-41be-9814-805691b9060eAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-71284162454583050482019-07-29T11:49:04.172-04:002019-07-29T11:49:04.172-04:00https://www.dropbox.com/s/lsgsi10l5cd7cr5/Magellan...https://www.dropbox.com/s/lsgsi10l5cd7cr5/Magellan%20Pipeline%20Closure%20Impact%20Assessment%20-%20Fertecon%20July%202019.pdf?dl=0red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-30262645282814327982019-07-24T17:03:34.267-04:002019-07-24T17:03:34.267-04:00http://www.cvrpartners.com/News/PDF/2019-07-24%20U...http://www.cvrpartners.com/News/PDF/2019-07-24%20UAN%20Q2%202019%20Earnings%20Release--FINAL%20v2.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-86139542257379471672019-06-28T08:50:41.912-04:002019-06-28T08:50:41.912-04:00I have not. I may write about the common shares in...I have not. I may write about the common shares in the period between Q2 and Q3 reporting. <br /><br />Suzano provides exposure to the same fundaments with less aggravation. SUZ is to FGE as CF is to LXUred.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-35126631194368386482019-06-27T16:34:10.226-04:002019-06-27T16:34:10.226-04:00Curious if you've posted any thoughts on the F...Curious if you've posted any thoughts on the Fortress convert purchase?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-40171874106015629192019-06-01T11:46:24.587-04:002019-06-01T11:46:24.587-04:00This is my view of LXU in numerical form
https://w...This is my view of LXU in numerical form<br />https://www.dropbox.com/s/w1lynamogxdfiyc/LSB%20INDUSTRIES%202019.xlsx?dl=0<br /><br />One issue is that a significant share of LXU's ASPs on the industrial side are fixed by the Tampa ammonia price. Separately, a sgnificant share of LXU's margins (also on the industrial side) are linked to the Tampa ammonia price. Merchant ammonia prices have decoupled from teh rest of the nitrogen value chain; and prices of all nitrogen products at the US Gulf have decoupled from both inland and international prices because of the weather-induced problems in transporting product into the interior. I have attempted to fairly represent these issues in the tab labelled "quarterly".<br /><br />A recent note on the ammonia dislocation:<br />https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1912259-high-upgrading-margins-boost-urea?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=news&utm_term=we-fer<br /><br />---<br /><br />re: Mexico. A trade war with China hurts soybeans and a trade war with Mexico hurts corn. So, having both on the go at the same time is not good. However, this time next year is election season and Trump cannot win without the corn and soybean producing states. <br /><br />I'm satisfied with holding on to all of my UAN shares for the next few months. LXU's performance turn is, I think, 10 months away. If LXU offers 2x the projected total return that UAN does then, I'll switch into it. CVRP may refinance their debt soon, should pay out substantial distributions, etc. I'd prefer to participate in that and then reassess. <br /><br />Hope that helps<br /><br /><br /><br />https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1912259-high-upgrading-margins-boost-urea?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=news&utm_term=we-ferred.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.com