tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post2058754793432810807..comments2023-10-17T06:55:06.255-04:00Comments on the red corner: Future Bright Holdings - Part 1red.http://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-36042246629893815822020-06-15T18:55:31.818-04:002020-06-15T18:55:31.818-04:00Hi everyone, i am so glade coming back to this gre...Hi everyone, i am so glade coming back to this great forum to testify about the help i received from Carrol Walker. I was in desperate need of a loan in other to be free from debt and financial bondage that was place on me by my ex husband. It was really bad that i have to seek for help from Friends,family and even my bank but on one could assist me because my credit score was really bad. So i was browsing with my computer and saw some testimonies from people Carrol Walker assisted with a loan, then i decided to contact him on his email{infoloanfirm8@gmail.com}, then i received a mail from them and i did all that was asked from me. To my greatest surprise they transferred to my account the loan i requested and now i am so happy clearing my debt and have also started a business with the remaining amount to take care of myself and family. If you need a loan do contact the best loan lender of all time Carrol Walker on his email: {infoloanfirm8@gmail.com}Doris Susanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00462531412081635393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-36053309906220753162019-01-19T09:15:20.516-05:002019-01-19T09:15:20.516-05:00https://focusedcompounding.com/future-bright-a-mac...https://focusedcompounding.com/future-bright-a-macau-restaurant-operator-with-restructuring-potential/<br /><br />How do you see this at the moment, red?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-31534184231252178402014-08-22T09:08:17.904-04:002014-08-22T09:08:17.904-04:00Restaurant footprint up 10%,
Sales per sq ft up 9...Restaurant footprint up 10%, <br />Sales per sq ft up 9.6%<br />Consolidated operating margins up<br />Return on capital steady at 57%<br /><br />Pleasant reading so farred.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-45190707332512591782014-08-22T08:22:10.976-04:002014-08-22T08:22:10.976-04:00I saw they released interim results today, any tho...I saw they released interim results today, any thoughts on those? Everything in line with expectations or is there something to look out for in particular?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-31890696948209697842014-08-22T07:41:30.689-04:002014-08-22T07:41:30.689-04:00I think it will take HK $75m to get there. If we b...I think it will take HK $75m to get there. If we back out $70m for the central kitchen it looks like capex runs at roughly $295/sq ft red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-33479044509535732752014-08-22T07:09:28.878-04:002014-08-22T07:09:28.878-04:00Red
Do you have any views on the capex (other tha...Red<br /><br />Do you have any views on the capex (other than for Henquin) needed to get to the projected 2017 sqf?<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-26720868494380218192014-08-20T15:40:54.446-04:002014-08-20T15:40:54.446-04:00Hi George,
I backed it out and saw that the numbe...Hi George,<br /><br />I backed it out and saw that the numbers on page 7 here (http://www.chinastock.com.hk/ewebeditor/uploadfile/20130911091217700.pdf <br /><br />agreed with what I got. red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-13109313062127208892014-08-20T14:01:36.272-04:002014-08-20T14:01:36.272-04:00Hi Red,
I was just wondering how you came by the ...Hi Red,<br /><br />I was just wondering how you came by the figures for Gross Operating Profit for individual restaurant types (Japanese, Chinese etc). I see the revenue numbers in the 2013 AR but no breakdown on that granular a level of the gross operating level.<br /><br />Are you backing them out somehow or you have some analyst reports or some such with that data?<br /><br />Thanks,Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-1745497636510062072014-08-18T08:55:44.373-04:002014-08-18T08:55:44.373-04:00David, I'll post my excel spreadsheet with my ...David, I'll post my excel spreadsheet with my next post on Future Brightred.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-72759492517159456732014-08-18T04:38:04.664-04:002014-08-18T04:38:04.664-04:00Red,
You are calculating EV as 10 times EBIT. Do ...Red,<br /><br />You are calculating EV as 10 times EBIT. Do you use NOPAT also for having an idea of EV, or just for knowing what the company is really earning?<br /><br />Also in your 2017 estimation for obtaining the share price (in the low & in the high ) you divide EV by total number of shares(EV/Nº Shares). But don´t you have to include net debt?<br /><br />Thanks.Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-70717761029658171862014-08-16T11:23:51.944-04:002014-08-16T11:23:51.944-04:00Well, you'd want to separate out the income ge...Well, you'd want to separate out the income generated from the business (i.e. NOPAT) from the way in which those profits are distributed -- to debt holders, minority interests, and to the common.<br /><br />So, I'd do:<br />NOPAT minus net interest expense = EBT<br /><br />EBT less taxes = Income<br />Income less MI = earnings to common<br /><br />MI is currently 10% or so of income and is related to the operation of 3 restaurants. I therefore expect that it will command a smaller share of income over time. red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-72808075527392371012014-08-16T11:01:32.316-04:002014-08-16T11:01:32.316-04:00Thanks for your reply.
But how about the minority...Thanks for your reply.<br /><br />But how about the minority interest?<br /><br />Shouldnt it be deducted from your number?<br /><br />ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-32868689456425932032014-08-16T09:47:07.025-04:002014-08-16T09:47:07.025-04:00Chris -
EBT = 322.6
Net interest expense = 0.3
R...Chris - <br /><br />EBT = 322.6<br />Net interest expense = 0.3<br />Revaluation = -120<br />SUBTOTAL = 202.9<br /><br />FV of financial assets = 0.7<br />Stock-based compensation = 1.3<br />Dividend income - -0.2<br />OPERATING EBIT = 204.7<br /><br />Operating income tax @ 12% = -21.8<br />NOPAT = 182.9 red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-29118920222808600962014-08-16T09:23:28.069-04:002014-08-16T09:23:28.069-04:00It is a risk. Here's a brief narrative
http://...It is a risk. Here's a brief narrative<br />http://www.gamblingandthelaw.com/index.php/columns/327-chinas-gambling-problem<br /><br />So, if you think that businesses like Chow Tai Fook and Oriental Watch are somewhere between the junket operators & UnionPay at the sharp end, and FB downstream, it's worth looking at their YOY SSS collapse and mulling over the implications for FB.red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-18223110611905444382014-08-16T08:37:49.594-04:002014-08-16T08:37:49.594-04:00Red what about Illegal gambling? Isn't that a ...Red what about Illegal gambling? Isn't that a risk. The argument is that in the US Vegas has a lot of competition. But how does illegal gambling and online gambling play into that in China?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-37193342772141621372014-08-15T19:31:21.941-04:002014-08-15T19:31:21.941-04:001.
Important question & rather than waffle on...1. <br />Important question & rather than waffle on I'll upload a report that examines the "build it and they will come?" aspect of the story.<br />https://www.dropbox.com/s/iw190kfj6hjv4dk/Macau%20Gaming%20Nomura%20Feb%202014.pdf <br /><br />and another one that examines Hengqing angle<br />https://www.dropbox.com/s/s3k86szxyq6b6za/Macau%20by%20DBS%20April%202014.pdf<br /><br />Happy to chat about it after you've looked through them.<br /><br />2.<br /><br />Thanks very much for linking to those two interesting items on Huafa Mall. A lot seems to have gone right for the company in the last couple of months. <br /><br />red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-60276297173455226782014-08-15T18:53:24.209-04:002014-08-15T18:53:24.209-04:00Thanks for the reply Red. Just a couple more comme...Thanks for the reply Red. Just a couple more comments/questions:<br /><br />1. If Cotai and Hengqin get built out go according to plan, could the new supply of venues actually reduce tourist spending away from existing locations/restaurant? Number of visitors are growing low to mid single digits, but the amount of "entertainment options" will more than double. <br /><br />You did mention Macau is capacity constrained. But I find it hard to believe number of visitors will grow proportionately with number of hotels/casinos. So while total spending and foot traffic may increase (in greater Macau), spending and traffic at each location may decrease (unless each visitor will go to the new places with the same intensity as present). <br /><br />2. According to DianPing (Chinese Yelp-alike), it appears Huafa Mall is a success. Here's the link:<br /><br />http://www.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dianping.com%2Fshop%2F18283474<br /><br />http://www.dianping.com/shop/18283474 (non-translated version)<br /><br />Common thread is that restaurants are packed. Also some reviewer mentioned restaurants yet to be opened. Seems about right given FB is opening the new restaurants just about now. Good number of people in the pictures. And according to one reviewer, its the only mall in Zhuhai.2thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03600517008297153306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-75690529523014793422014-08-15T15:20:57.859-04:002014-08-15T15:20:57.859-04:00Sure.
It looks like the Hengqing project is goin...Sure. <br /><br />It looks like the Hengqing project is going to cost about 1,120 all in (purchase plus construction & development). One could run the cash well dry or one could issue shares. <br /><br />In their shoes, I'd issue shares since (1) strong financing capability is a likely precondition for winning the bid in the first place; (2) the project is so value-enhancing and (3) the one thing you don't want is to be caught in a liquidity crunch in case of the unknown unknowns. <br /><br />This fellow likes to shoot first and aim second. (see the central kitchen, for example). <br /><br />That's ugly and scary in normal environments but it probably accounts for a good deal of Future Bright's success thus far. <br /><br />The heart of the thesis is that Macau is no ordinary place, and that it has a long and prosperous future ahead of it. <br /><br />Based on Vegas, Oz, Sing etc comps, Macau today may be at 5% of its penetration potential. Add 20x the traffic & some number for per capita income growth and one does start to appreciate the tailwind. <br /><br />You second Q - I have seen that sort of thing before and I can't pretend that I understand it. I can guess, though, that one might take the view that developing and maintaining banking relationships may be viewed as in the long-term strategic interest of the company, and this would be one way of facilitating that.<br /><br />-----<br /><br />Chris -- I'll have a look. <br />red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-65794372365652200362014-08-15T14:24:48.692-04:002014-08-15T14:24:48.692-04:00Can you explain why FB chose to issue shares to fu...Can you explain why FB chose to issue shares to fund Hengqin project? Company has hk$650M+ gross cash and generates hk$200M a year. Seems more than capable to self-fund without diluting future upside. <br /><br />Also, I don't understand why hk$208M deposit is pledged to secure a bank loan of similar amount. What's the point?<br /><br />Thanks.2thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03600517008297153306noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-59225130510319109382014-08-15T03:03:08.741-04:002014-08-15T03:03:08.741-04:00Hi Red
In your calculations, the NOPAT for 2013 i...Hi Red<br /><br />In your calculations, the NOPAT for 2013 is 183. But for my calculations, it is only ~130, after taking out all the revaluation gain. How do you get that number?<br /><br />ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-51690861628730043282014-08-14T10:11:43.065-04:002014-08-14T10:11:43.065-04:00anon - anything not in a casino is going to have l...anon - anything not in a casino is going to have lower footfall and rev per sq ft. I think your estimate of 3k to 3.5k tops is probably right.<br /><br />As for "their area", they've been pretty clear that they think of the greater Macau area as their playground. I can see why and don't think it unreasonable.red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-89295221951789778782014-08-13T04:15:36.061-04:002014-08-13T04:15:36.061-04:00Red,
Reading 2013 annual report FB say that they...Red, <br /><br />Reading 2013 annual report FB say that they are going to open 3 new restaurants. And in your 2014* estimates you say they are going to double their sq ft. Where do you get this information?<br /><br />Also I would like to ask if you calculate future revenues multiplying future sq ft by past gross operating profit. <br /><br />Last question I normally calculate net debt as cash plus their building assets less long term liabilities. For you I think net debt is aproximatly cero. Is that right?<br /><br />Thanks.Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-24770766580052759742014-08-11T07:06:01.996-04:002014-08-11T07:06:01.996-04:00Red,
I´ve take a look to the annual report and in...Red,<br /><br />I´ve take a look to the annual report and in 2013 the gross operating profit is 272. I think you were wrong because you take 297.<br /><br />Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-42245554459788404352014-08-07T15:21:26.195-04:002014-08-07T15:21:26.195-04:00100k of their 158k sqft will be opened in Zhuhai. ...100k of their 158k sqft will be opened in Zhuhai. It seems they are stepping outside of their boundary's?<br /><br />Isn't this a different market then Macau? I could see how revenue/sqft might only reach 3-3.5k tops? With lower foot traffic concentration.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4631423976894080706.post-78526109390302975682014-08-03T10:30:35.442-04:002014-08-03T10:30:35.442-04:00Birthed via a backdoor listing 10 years ago. Prior...Birthed via a backdoor listing 10 years ago. Prior business was amusement rides and lost money and couldn't be turned around though they tried for too long. So there's some stigma attached.<br /><br />Smallish company at a time when China skepticism is at a high means that institutional money (aka value funds) are looking at more liquid names.<br /><br />No obvious route to expansion to the mainland. FB has deluded itself in the recent past that it owns brands that can be leveraged in the mainland market. It doesn't and it has lost money in the trying. Understandable if someone looks at FB and, say, Tsui Wah and concludes that the latter is cheaper over the long term.red.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04089263693762295793noreply@blogger.com