Saturday, October 6, 2012

Robo-Buffett




"Consider, from this perspective rather than the one from which it is usually considered (the nature and function of magic), Evans-Pritchard's famous discussion of Azande witchcraft. He is, as he explicitly says but no one seems much to have noticed, concerned with common-sense thought—Zande common-sense thought—as the general background against which the notion of witchcraft is developed. It is the flouting of Zande notions of natural causation, what in the mere experience of the world leads to what, that suggests the operation of some other sort of causation—Evans-Pritchard calls it "mystical"—which an in fact rather materialistic concept of witchcraft (it involves a blackish substance located in an individual's belly, and so on) sums up. 

Take a Zande boy, he says, who has stubbed his foot on a tree stump and developed an infection. The boy says it's witchcraft. Nonsense, says Evans-Pritchard, out of his own common-sense tradition: you were merely bloody careless; you should have looked where you were going. I did look where I was going; you have to with so many stumps about, says the boy— and if I hadn't been witched I would have seen it. Furthermore, all cuts do not take days to heal, but on the contrary, close quickly, for that is the nature of cuts. But this one festered, thus witchcraft must be involved.

Or take a Zande potter, a very skilled one, who, when now and again one of his pots cracks in the making, cries "witchcraft!" Nonsense! says Evans-Pritchard, who, like all good ethnographers, seems never to learn: of course sometimes pots crack in the making; it's the way of the world. But, says the potter, I chose the clay carefully, I took pains to remove all the pebbles and dirt, I built up the clay slowly and with care, and I abstained from sexual intercourse the night before. And still it broke. What else can it be but witchcraft? And yet another time, when he was ill—feeling unfit, as he puts it—Evans-Pritchard wondered aloud to some Zandes whether it may have been that he had eaten too many bananas, and they said, nonsense! bananas don't cause illness; it must have been witchcraft.

Thus, however "mystical" the content of Zande witchcraft beliefs may or may not be (and I have already suggested they seem so to me only in the sense that I do not myself hold them), they are actually employed by the Zande in a way anything but mysterious—as an elaboration and defense of the truth claims of colloquial reason."

Cliff Geertz -- Common Sense as a Cultural System in Local Knowledge




Does low beta + leverage cause outperformance? Or does quality cause low beta and allow for leverage, thereby causing outperformance? 

If you receive the former as common sense, you too may become a market wizard. 
 

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Matchtech, Harvey Nash - Recruitment




This is a post about the uses of relative valuation more than it is about these two businesses in particular.

Harvey Nash and Matchtech do the same things on the same scale – they are specialist recruitment agents with small sidelines in outsourcing.




There doesn’t seem to be any clear reason why one would prefer to hold Harvey Nash rather than Matchtech.


Matchtech is worth a look. The margins in its growth businesses are 3x the margins in its legacy business.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Cybergun -- Replica Firearms



Cybergun, listed on the French exchanges, is an interesting situation.

It makes replica air guns, under licence to brands such as Beretta, Smith & Wesson, Colt etc., for the benefit of the collector, toy, and paint-ball game markets. These are not large markets, and Cybergun dominates them. Naturally, its sales are concentrated in the United States.

Up until the year ending March 2010, things were going as one would expect: growth (22.5% CAGR), healthy RONIC (44.5%), and all the rest of it.

And then, for some reason known only to the CEO, whose family owns 44% of the business, Cybergun decided that it might as well branch out into shoot-‘em-up video games, too. Of course, any link between physical guns and video games is extremely tenuous – the markets, distribution channels, manufacturing processes, supply chains, are all different. Inevitably, therefore, the capital invested in this drive into software was wasted – heavy capex in 2010 and heavy goodwill write-downs in 2012.

The company has now rethought the rush of blood to the head and is, contra Hornby, washing its hands of its noncore activities. Unpleasant for longstanding shareholders  (the equity raise that financed the foray into video games came at their expense), but, now that the lesson has been learned the hard way, perhaps an attractive opportunity for new shareholders.

At a 10% discount rate, the underlying earning power value of the replica gun business is about EUR 11 per share, four times the current share price. Growth should add substantial additional value. The leverage is worth thinking about, however.


Dsclosure: No position